Cheese
US export potential suffers from trade disrupting measures
Europe
Prices give in a little at the start of the EU milk season
Under the pressure of the seasonally growing milk production the cheese market prices have begun to subside a little, also because the price differential with US cheese is so large that the EU is losing most deals on the export markets. However, as the milk production figures are far from impressive in several EU countries, the availabilities of Mozzarella and Gouda are not abundant. Mozzarella is quickly absorbed, both on spot and for May delivery at the price of EUR 4200-4250, and Gouda trades around EUR 4300-4350, both ex works. Some spot deals of small volumes occur below this level, but on the other hand some larger producers do not even have availability right now, as they have been selling very young Gouda for several weeks already. There is a little more weakness in Cheddar, as the milk supply is quite good in both Ireland and in Eastern EU, where most cheddar production takes place. In those regions the price has dropped to EUR 4700-4800, but when one is looking for cheddar in Germany the price rises to above EUR 5000, both ex works.
Americas
Tariff implementation boosts uncertainty
At this moment, just after the US implemented the new tariffs for imports, the cheese market is trying to find its footing as uncertainty rules. Prices are in the USD mid 1.60s/lb (about 3650/t) for colored blocks and barrels are at the same level. Export (white) block prices range from USD 1.78/lb (3935/t) to USD 1.82/lb (4010/t), all ex works. The market is quite nervous as US origin may be regarded as unreliable because of the tariffs and retaliation measures that trade partners may take. This inevitably has a bearish effect right now. Price wise the US should be the origin of choice but most importers will probably be looking for a plan B as well to prepare for sudden events or disruption of trade flows. Domestic consumption is a little weak, both in food service and in retail, but cheddar production is also not super strong as processors prioritize Italian cheese production.
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