Europe

Market lacks direction

The EU SMP market is on holiday, it appears. There are too few deals to determine a real price direction, even though there are both bullish and bearish signals around. The export window for EU powder opens and closes whenever the euro-dollar exchange rate shifts because the price differential in the three main regions that we plot in the graph is clearly minimal. The supply situation in the EU is a little better than expected several months ago when herd diseases were casting quite a negative shadow. Overall, the buy and sell side both maintain their short focus, because of a lack of a clear outlook on the price direction going forward. The current spot price is about EUR 2400 ex works.

Americas

Relative price stability continues to surprise 

Apparently due to limited stocks on the sell side the US NFDM market still feels quite stable in the front. Prices are at USD 1.28/lb (2820/t) ex works with medium heat being available at a discount of about USD 4 cts/lb. Mexican demand is going through its usual weak months of July and August but demand is expected to come alive again in a few weeks time. Sellers remain relaxed for now, but the milk production numbers of California in particular do not lie. Export competition will inevitably heat up when the Oceania season gains pace and US milk production continues to strengthen. 

Asia-Pacific

Price stability at the start of the season

At the current price range of USD 2750-2900 FOB for Oceania SMP there is decent demand in the region. With the prices in EU and Oceania almost at par it is the currency market that these days determines which region is most attractive for importing parties. With the bulk of SE Asia not yet recovered economically to pre-Covid levels most buyers are maintaining their short term focus and there is supply-wise no reason to change that procurement policy.

SMP and NFDM have been trading in quite a narrow bandwidth in the three main export regions for the past two and a half years. When we look further back there is much more price variation, with the lowest levels of early 2020 and the peak levels of spring 2022 both caused by the disruptions that Covid caused to the supply chains and consumption patterns. The price alignment for early August 2025 is quite remarkable.