FCMP
Relatively stable market conditions in FCMP
Europe
EU origins did not follow the upward price movement in other markets
As Oceania prices are moving up, EU FCMP origins inevitably get closer to the point that exports become economically viable again. We are not there yet, but EU prices did not go up in a similar way as NZ product. Product is traded at EUR 2950-3050 ex works. Availability is good as FCMP production is simply needed to balance the ongoing strong supply. The demand side is not really chasing EU product at the moment yet, which probably explains the stabilization of prices in the EU market.
Americas
Supported market
During the December month the Latin American FCMP powder market experienced ongoing pressure and the price dropped to a bottom level of USD 3150 FOB. However at the start of the new year things received tailwind from the upward momentum at GDT and even though Brazilian buyers remain absent there is sufficient interest from amongst others private buyers in Algeria to pull prices back to levels around USD 3400 FOB. ONIL has been absent for so long now that the moment of their reappearance can only come closer every week. Milk production in Uruguay and Argentina remains good but now that there is some international demand the market feels more supported than it has been for a while.
Asia-Pacific
Uncertainty rules
This early in the year it is far from clear which direction the price will take once the dust of the early January GDT session settles. Sales volumes have been quite high in the final weeks of 2025 and therefore there is uncertainty about availability of FCMP in Oceania from now on. The support on the GDT price was largely based on good buying appetite in China, related to Chinese New Year. Post GDT FCMP changes hands at levels of USD 3350-3450 FOB and there is no consensus about the price direction right now.
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