Butter
Nervousness in EU versus stability in US and New Zealand
Europe
The price graph shows that the EU butter price is unchanged versus our early March quote. This perceived stability is misleading though, as in the past four weeks the EU butter price has been very volatile. Each week the price began to fall in the first days of the week and once buyers started to step back in around Thursdays the price rebounded, and this pattern repeated itself the next week. This reflects the nervousness that buyers feel towards every period, from April 2025 up until Q2 2026. Another factor that masks this volatility is the appreciation of the Euro vs the US dollar, as in Euro terms the average butter price has decreased by just over 3%. The price varies across the EU, from EUR 7150 in Poland – where the strong retail sales in the run up to Easter were met with good availability – to EUR 7250 in Ireland and EUR 7300 in The Netherlands, Belgium and Germany, all ex works.
Americas
Butter market will likely remain range bound
The US butter market feels largely stable at historically low price levels. The cream market has tightened up slightly but availability is still OK and stock levels are seasonally building. The overall strong recent cream availability was surprising against the background of the weak milk production in the main cream production state California, but apparently buyers abstain from longer term contracts this year. This has freed up significant cream volumes for the spot market. Exports of butter are still good but weakening prices in the EU appear to lower the appetite somewhat currently. At this point the market looks like it will remain bound to a price range of USD 2.20-2.45/lb (4850-5400/t) in the next couple of months. Current prices are found around a level of USD 2.34/lb (5160/t).
Asia-Pacific
Stable market
Despite the fact that the AMF price has risen a little the discount versus butter remains atypical. There is good buying interest for butter in Q2, when production in Oceania and volumes on offer on GDT are seasonally low. Both China and the Middle East are relatively quiet at the moment, with the FX headwind likely to be the main explanation. The Oceania supply side remains very comfortable, also because EU butter is not competitive and US export butter supply remains tight. The current market price for butter is USD 7575 FOB and AMF trades at around 7600 FOB.
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