Colors reflect world market price movements in the week prior to publishing. Grey is 'no change' and in case of a white block, there is no information about price movements.
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Uncertainties about the market fundamentals coincide with geopolitical turmoil
The US tariff announcements and their impact on exchange rates were obviously the main market event in early April. At a moment that it already was difficult to translate the fundamentals into a view on dairy commodity prices going forward, this adds additional uncertainty for both buyers and sellers. Fundamentally however, the global market balance appears to slowly relax somewhat. The Northern hemisphere peak is near and although current production growth is still minimal against last year’s comparable numbers, markets are faced with a bit more milk than last year. Over the next 6-8 weeks we will learn if milk production is strong enough to fulfill a major part of the backlog in buyside purchases in order to build a buffer for the Northern hemisphere summer to come. It is just a bit too early to tell if Northern hemisphere peak supply is really able to provide the buyside with the kind of comfort that they have been looking for since probably Q2 of 2024.
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Exchange rates used in this document:
Feb EUR 1 = USD 1.036; Mar EUR 1 = USD 1.080; Apr EUR 1 = USD 1.105