Milk in key exporting regions
%-change versus previous year
Europe
Spot milk prices remain at very low levels
The EU spot liquid milk market remains depressed as prices fail to elevate above EUR 0.15 in all major markets. Liquid milk in France even dropped back to EUR 0.07 or lower as demand from Spain dried up. Belgian spot prices are maybe a few cents higher and Dutch spot milk trades at EUR 0.12-0.13. German milk is mostly traded around EUR 0.17 although customers further East and South pay prices around EUR 0.25 since fuel premiums have increased rapidly over the past few weeks. SMC processors in the UK and Ireland experience a lot of pressure as milk volumes increase seasonally. Cream is traded at EUR 4.10 in early April which implies that the spread with butter prices has diminished due to the drop in butter prices. However, commodity butter production is still economically viable despite strong seasonal demand for fresh cream this time of year.
Americas
US milk production remains strong but headroom seems absent
US milk supply remains well ahead of last year in February but can hardly get any stronger from this point onwards. Mainly because the heifer pipeline is reportedly empty. Some productivity gains and higher content levels could still create some more availability of fats and proteins but herd increases are unlikely from this point onwards. The most conceivable scenario is that the herd will remain more or less at the current level despite the strong beef returns. Production growth is expected to remain positive, be it at a declining growth rate versus last year due to the stronger comparables in the second half of 2025.
Asia-Pacific
Shoulder of the Oceania season is strong
The shoulder of the Oceania season appears to be strong judging by the recent February numbers. New Zealand was up 6% in February and March and April are not expected to be significantly different. Australia remains more or less in line with last year but financially things look very healthy, especially after the latest milk price rises in February and March. Cash flows in both New Zealand and Australia were hardly affected by the market downturn in Q4 2025 and dairy farmers are looking forward to the new season with significant optimism.
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